DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z FRI 14/03 - 06Z SAT 15/03 2003
ISSUED: 13/03 22:32Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE

SYNOPSIS

ROBUST UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH SEA CONTROLS EUROPEAN MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN ... WITH AN INTENSE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CENTRAL EUROPE DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN ... A WEAKENING TROUGH WEST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA EVADING NORTHWARD ... AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING OVER NORTHEASTERN SCANDINAVIA. APART FROM THE IBERIAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF BISCAYA AS WELL AS OVER THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN, COLD AIRMASSES HAVE ENTERED THE EUROPEAN CONTINENT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL EFFECT THE CENTRAL AND EVEN WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIODE.

DISCUSSION

...EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN...
SINCE EASTERN CENTRAL EUROPEAN TROUGH MIGRATES SOUTHWARD ... WINDS OVER EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN WILL TURN BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTIONS, AND COLDFRONT IS FORECASTED TO STOP ALONG SARDINIA ... SOUTHERN GREECE ... SOUTHERN TURKEY. MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SHALLOW WAVES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. TEMPS FROM THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN DO NOT SHOW ANY INSTABILITY DUE TO VERY DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER AND WARM MID TROPOSPHERE. UPPER COOLING IN THE RANGE OF SOUTHWARD MIGRATING TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOLING WILL ARISE INSTABILITY SIGNIFICANTLY. ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ... RAIN SHOULD BE POSSIBLE, AND PROBABLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

...SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MIGRATES NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS. ALIGNED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN OVER PORTUGAL/ WESTERN SPAIN. WITHIN THE AFTERNOON ... SOME HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. SHEAR-PROFILES SHOULD NOT SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

...NORTHERN SCANDINAVIA...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY DUE TO LOW THETA-E VALUES. IF SHOWERS MAY FORM ... STRONG WIND-GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

#